• International Speculator editor Dave Forest says

first_img• International Speculator editor Dave Forest says trade war fears are overblown… Dave is our in-house geologist. He knows more about commodities than anyone I know who’s not named Doug Casey, of course.And he had this to say about the trade war recently:Trade war fears are overblown. The U.S.-China trade dispute is no excuse to sit out the coming bull market in commodities. This is a trend you’ll want to keep on your radar for the foreseeable future.And there’s a simple reason for this.• China can’t afford to let the trade war escalate… It has one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. And it will soon have the largest middle class in the world.But its economy would come to a standstill without copper and nickel. Not only that, China gets most of these base metals from other countries.See for yourself. This is a chart that Dave and his team put together recently. The orange bars represent refined production, a proxy for demand. The blue bars show mine output, or domestic supply.You can see that refined production far exceeds mine output. This tells you just how much China depends on foreign sources for copper.• China’s nickel supply is even more dire… According to Dave, domestic mines supply only 14% of China’s nickel needs. Take a look.To make a long story short: China simply cannot allow the trade war to escalate. If it does, its entire economy would unravel.It shouldn’t come as a surprise that China is trying to deescalate matters. Dave wrote in last month’s issue of International Speculator:On September 30, China’s Ministry of Finance announced it is reducing general import tariffs on base metals and steel from 11.5% to 8.4%. The Ministry also announced duty cuts on a wider slate of minerals and gemstones from 6.6% to 5.4%.It’s also worth noting that China originally planned to impose a 25% tariff on liquified natural gas but later dropped the rate to 10%. Of course, supply is only one side of the coin…• Demand also needs to be strong for base metals prices to rise… I bring this up because many people think China’s economy is headed for a “hard landing.”But once again, Dave sees the situation differently:Recent reports from China suggest the government is moving quickly to cushion any blow from a trade-related economic slump.For one, officials at the national level have pushed forward new bond financing for local government infrastructure projects. That’s in stark contrast to the first half of 2018, when federal officials had been tightening financing to local developers.The Chinese government now appears intent on launching a new wave of economic stimulus projects. Approvals from China’s National Development and Reform Commission have seen a sharp lift since July – coinciding almost exactly with the escalation of the trade war.In other words, Dave believes China’s economy is in much better shape than people realize.When you combine that with lower tariffs, you have the ingredients for much higher metals prices.Most people don’t realize this. All they hear about is how the trade war is intensifying and how China is headed for a major economic slowdown. But Dave says those fears are wildly overblown.• So consider speculating on these base metals if you haven’t yet… You can easily do this by buying shares in a major mining company.Just be sure to treat any bet on higher commodity prices as a speculation. Only bet money that you can afford to lose. Use stop losses. And take profits when they come.I also encourage you to check out Dave’s research. He recently recommended the top stock to own as the trade war unfolds. It’s in a prime position to help China… and it has massive upside ahead. International Speculator subscribers can access the issue here.If you’re not a subscriber, you can access this pick by signing up today. And that’s not the only money-making opportunity you can take advantage of… Dave just released a new video about a breakthrough in electric vehicle tech that needs to be on your radar today. Watch the video and learn more about a subscription here.Regards,Justin Spittler New Orleans, LA November 29, 2018P.S. I also recommend reading Dave’s recent essays below. They all show that the commodities sector is gearing up for a rally. Read on to see the top metals that need to be in your portfolio today… Legendary Growth Investor Announces Major BUY SignalJust released: Louis Navellier just posted critical research about a massive market shift dead ahead. His last major buy alert turned $100,000 into $1.2 million in about one year. Now he’s sharing a NEW Buy Signal that could be his biggest ever. Don’t miss this chance to get his new alert before it goes offline. “It’s Time to Buy Silicon Valley’s Favorite Metal” China to CEO of World’s #1 Electric Car Company: You Lose.In the race to make electric cars cheaper than gas and diesel vehicles, the winner was always thought to be the #1 U.S. electric car company. But what China will do any day now could catapult it to the #1 spot… and solidify its position as the world leader. Reader MailbagYour comments continue to roll in on Doug Casey’s interview on the migrant caravan…Hey Doug. Been reading your stuff for 10 years. Generally enjoy it. Loved Ayn Rand in my 20s… now I see where it falls apart. I’m a Canadian millennial. Anyways. This article lacked empathy. I like when you write finance/economy articles because there isn’t much emotion in it. But when you apply your logic and rational thought to sensitive human subjects like the caravan it just comes across as mean, uncaring, and unloving. The idea that everything should be private property so you can kick the mooching homeless off all lawns is sad. I get it. I remember how Ayn Rand taught me about moochers and they suck the producers dry, forever taking. As a white educated male, it made sense to me! But not everyone is like me. Maybe that homeless guy is mentally ill. Maybe he got sick and lost everything. I have friends who are on government handouts because they lost their jobs. They don’t like how it feels and actively look for work so they can get off the “dole” but they appreciate it in the meantime so they can feed themselves and keep a roof over their head. Yes, that intent of government spending CAN work.Anyways. Just please try and have a bit more empathy for people. At the end of the day who knows why we are here and for what purpose, so lead with kindness. Can’t hurt…— Mike Recommended Link — By Justin Spittler, editor, Casey Daily DispatchThe trade war has claimed its biggest victim.…Apple (AAPL).Apple sells the wildly popular iPhone, iPad, and MacBook. It’s one of the most recognized companies on the planet. It was the world’s most valuable publicly traded company until Microsoft (MSFT) overtook it on Monday.So how did a company this powerful get caught up in the trade war? Simple. On Monday, President Trump threatened to introduce a 10% tariff on consumer electronic products made in China.This would impact the iPhone and other Apple products…• Trump did this because he thinks the Chinese are screwing the U.S. on trade… But more tariffs wouldn’t just hurt the Chinese. They’d hurt everyday Americans, too.This is because tariffs make imported goods more expensive. And if the iPhone becomes pricier, people will think twice about buying one.That’s the last thing Apple can afford. Recommended Linklast_img

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